Jan
23
Written by:
Dr. Ernie Moore
Monday, January 23, 2012
A few days ago Elliott Abrams did a good piece on the comparison between Israel-US cancellation of joint military exercises and the Saudi’s verbal commitment to make up the difference is Iran won’t sell oil.
I believe Abrams is right – as usual, but there is one more card in the deck. The Saudi’s are not the fat benevolent guys in robes. They said later that they plan to keep oil prices at or above $100 a barrel. That was not such welcome news.
At any rate, here’s the column:
Provocations from Iran
Elliott Abrams
If there is any chance of avoiding a military confrontation with Iran or the Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons, that chance will be the product of very resolute U.S. policy toward Iran. In the last few days we have seen more evidence that such a policy is lacking.
First came the report that Iranian boats were harassing U.S. naval vessels in the Persian Gulf. Confirming a CNN news report, a senior U.S. defense official said Iranian Navy speedboats had harassed U.S. naval vessels in two recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
The first incident occurred as the USS New Orleans, an amphibious transport ship, was sailing through the strait into the Persian Gulf last week. Three Iranian Navy speedboats rapidly approached within 500 yards of the ship, according to U.S. officials cited by CNN. The second incident involved the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Adak off the Kuwaiti coast, similarly approached by an Iranian speedboat. Sailors on the Adak reported seeing Iranians on the speedboat brandishing AK-47 assault rifles and a heavy machine gun, CNN said. A senior official told the French news agency AFP: “I can confirm there was some harassment.”
How do we respond to such provocations? Here is one possible answer:
Israel and the U.S. have postponed a massive joint defense exercise, which had been expected to take place in coming weeks, to avoid an escalation with Iran, [Israel’s] Channel 2 reported on Sunday.
This is the wrong response, especially at a moment when Iran is going full steam ahead with its nuclear program and is now indulging itself in direct threats to Gulf oil producers. Here is a new report:
“Iran has starkly warned Gulf states not to make up for any shortfall in its oil exports under new U.S. and EU sanctions, adding yet another layer of peril to the international showdown over its nuclear program. If Arab neighbors compensate for a looming EU ban on Iranian imports, ‘we would not consider these actions to be friendly,’ Iran’s representative to OPEC, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, was quoted as saying by the Sharq newspaper on Sunday. ‘They will be held responsible for what happens’ in that case, he said, adding ominously, ‘One cannot predict the consequences.’”
Iran’s Arab neighbors are not rattled, as this story suggests:
“Saudi Arabia says it has enough oil output capacity to meet global customers’ needs if new sanctions keep Iran from exporting oil, a top U.S. Republican lawmaker said on Friday. House of Representatives Majority Leader Eric Cantor spoke to Reuters by telephone from Europe after several days of meetings in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi was among the officials he met. ‘The Saudi government indicated that it was ready and able to meet needs of its customers,’ Cantor told Reuters.”
In fact, comparing this Saudi reaction to the cancellation of the U.S.-Israel maneuvers, shows that we are perhaps more rattled than they -- which, if accurate, is a sad story, as is the story of failures to react to completely unprovoked harassment by the Iranian Navy. Surely such a stance will do nothing to persuade Iran’s rulers that the U.S. is serious about preventing their acquisition of nuclear weapons by whatever means necessary and that “all options are on the table.” Such a stance therefore makes an eventual confrontation between the U.S. and Iran, or U.S. acquiescence in the Iranian nuclear program, more likely.