Feb
1
Written by:
Dr. Ernie Moore
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Predicting events in the Middle East is no activity for the faint-hearted, or for that matter for anyone who is afraid of being wrong. (smile)
The only people who have had a worse record of guessing what will happen next seems to be the US CIA. They were out to lunch on the Arab Spring and Egypt’s Islamic revolution (still in progress).
Now former Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin says that Assad’s ruin could be a run of good fortune for Israel.
I’ll add some comments in brackets as usual “[ ]”
Changes in Syria will benefit Israel'
Former MI Chief Amos Yadlin says unrest in Syria may push it out of radical axis naturally
Shiri Hadar
"The changes in Syria bear strategic benefits for Israel," former Military Intelligence Chief and Head of the Institute for National Security Studies Amos Yadlin said [a week ago] Thursday, at a seminar held at Tel Aviv University.
Yadlin said that "For many years defense and political officials recommended that Israel strike a peace deal with Syria, even if it entailed paying a heavy price. The justification was to pull it out of the radical Syria-Iran axis.
[EDM: the heavy price is another way of saying turning over the Golan Heights.]
"This could happen today naturally, without us paying that price. Peace with Syria is needed regardless of recent events, but the process is positive," he said.
Yadlin further predicted that the Syrian economy is heading for tough times: "There's no tourism to speak of, investors are fleeing, there's a big public deficit – the situation is unstable and the only thing that can make Syria bounce back is a fat Iranian check, something in the neighborhood of $3-$5 billion. But even if they get that and even if Assad falls – Syria will never be the same."
[EDM: Mr. Yadlin is being kind when he speaks of “heading for tough times.” Too late – they’re already in tough times. He’s also wrong about Syria never being the same in one way. They may not have another dictator like Assad (though they just might, too, depending on who takes his place.
[But Syria could well come back if they choose the right – peaceful – way and kick out the Allawites who are in the Assad camp.
[In a recent Barnabus Briefing we sent out we discussed the fact that the people will probably kill Assad if he refuses to take him billions and get out of Dodge, er a Damascus. Removing Assad either way won’t guarantee a benevolent new government, but if they can keep the Iranians out, work hard to invite foreign investment and grow their tourism industry they could prosper.
[We have friends who have spend time in Syria before all this began and they returned with glowing reports on the graciousness of the people, the rich history in the form of archeology and culture.]
Speaking of the Arab Spring, the former MI chief expressed hope that Iran will become part of the process: "The Arab Spring is cause for concern in Israel and we are willing to face the risks alongside the hope it arises.
"If the revolution finds its way to Tehran it could save Israel the huge dilemma of choosing between two alternatives – a viable nuclear Iran or preventing a nuclear Iran."
[EDM: Iran’s current government is walking on egg shells. They never believed that Europe would cross them, but so far it looks like the EU is going to move up the force of sanctions. So far it’s only talk, but already the mullahs in Teheran can smell revolution – inside their own nation for a change.
[That, by the way, could buy some time for Iraq to choose wisely and not go with Teheran. It wasn’t looking too good for a while, but we can have a bit of hope that they don’t join the mullahs and try – genuinely try – to build their nation up rather than surrender to Iran.
[EDM: Israel would far rather have a real peace partner on their northern border than a supply depot for Hezbollah. It could be just vain hopefulness, but then, it may be a chance for Syria to prosper, too.]