Nov 16

Written by: Dr. Ernie Moore
Wednesday, November 16, 2016  RssIcon

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While Donald Trump was trouncing Hillary, and the Donald and Bibi are making nice, there are some more silent activities going on in the Middle East.

The octogenarian Mahmoud Abbas is running out his string and so Arab nations are working on who will take his place as the Palestinian President. Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Jordan are already planning who will take over the leadership of the Palestinians.

What is interesting is that the Palestinians aren’t saying a lot about the fact that outsiders think they can play king maker for their little slice of the Middle East.

In fact over the past year and a half more than one of Abbas’s people has been heard grumbling that the Arab States don’t care about them. One wonders if they need a safe place and a safety pin like many liberals on America’s campuses.

When one discusses leadership, it is good to remember that there are a lot of players. The Palestine Liberation Organization – one of the world’s biggest terrorist groups under Arafat is the old guy network. Then of course there is the Palestinian Legislative Counsel. This group is actually led by the Gaza terrorists in Hamas, thanks to the last real election almost a decade ago. They don’t count for anything since the big split between the Fatah (Abbas’s guys) and Hamas. During the brief civil war, Gaza fell to Hamas and Fatah took over the West Bank areas and locked up a bunch of Hamas leaders. Some are still there.

And finally there is the Palestinian Authority, or as they like to call it, The Palestinian State.

Confused yet?

Don’t be. Think of it as the Sioux nation against the Comanche Indians. It is tribal at its most elementary.

And the Palestinians are correct about one fact. The Arab states don’t really like the Palestinians, considering them a lot of ne’er do wells full of corruption and making trouble while they have enough problems from the so called Arab Spring, which has now after eight years of Obama become an Arab Winter.

Syria is a massive killing field. Iran runs Iraq. ISIS is in thirty nations to one degree or another. And Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the rest are quaking because Iran is still working toward nukes.

So why worry about the Palestinian Presidency? Because if there can be an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement that really works, then the Arab nations can take away the prime argument against working with Israel against a common enemy – ISIS.

ENTER (RE-ENTER) DAHLAN

The Arab trio has a plan which includes, according to one writer:

• unite and bolster Fatah for the forthcoming elections with Hamas

• weaken Hamas by dividing it into competing factions

• conclude a peace agreement with Israel with the backing of Arab states

• seize control of sovereign Palestinian institutions, the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), the PLO chairmanship and leadership of Fatah

• choreograph the return of Dahlan as the power behind the throne of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority (PA)

So if these three countries are prepared to cast their lot with a man who was brought along by Yasser Arafat and trained and promoted by US General Keith Dayton as he followed his orders to train Yasser Arafat’s security forces. The idea then was to train Arafat’s terrorist army, brought into Israel under the 1993 Oslo Accord.

As told by one reporter, “In 2000, Dahlan participated in the Camp David negotiations and Israeli leaders saw him as someone they could do business with. As head of one of the main Palestinian security organizations, Mr. Dahlan also negotiated with Israeli officials to try to arrange a ceasefire several times after the most recent Intifada erupted in September 2000. With the beginning of the second intifada, Dahlan claimed that he was unable to stop the activities of such militant groups as Hamas.”

As the US led security training developed, Dahlan became not only Arafat’s darling – he had followed the head terrorist since he was a teenager – but was given control of the security forces in Gaza.

“After being left out of the new Palestinian Authority cabinet, Dahlan began gathering support from low-level Fatah officials and former Preventive Security Service officers in response to a perceived lack of democratic reforms among Fatah leaders.

In 2004, Dahlan was the driving force behind week-long unrests in Gaza following the appointment of Yasser Arafat’s nephew Mousa Arafat, widely accused of corruption, as head of Gaza police forces. Some thought this appointment was a deliberate step to weaken Dahlan’s position before the disengagement process in the Gaza Strip and sparked massive protests.

When more fighting in Gaza erupted, a squad of masked men attacked “Moose’s” home, killing him and leaving the security apparatus leaderless and fomented a constant battle between Hamas and Fatah.

Dahlan ruled with a steel fist there until the 2007 civil war between Hamas and Fatah. During the Gaza war he was suddenly sent to Egypt to undergo “knee surgery.”

Later he returned to the West Bank, played a part in security there, and when Arafat died and was replaced by Abbas, continued on.

But Abbas, ever mindful of men who could uproot him and his greedy pals finally decided that Dahlan had to go.

It was in the mid-2000s that Abbas had people circulate rumors about Dahlan’s thievery (which were no doubt true. Most of the inner circle are extremely corrupt). Abbas even went so far as to have Dahlan’s brother killed and then raided Dahlan’s home, confiscating everything there and forcing Dahlan to flee for his life. He went to Montenegro, Dubai and other Arab states.

THE PLAN (According to “The Middle East Eye”)

Before presidential and legislative elections can be held this year in which Abbas could be removed, a replacement appointed and an agreement reached with Israel, a series of steps would have to be taken.

The first is to achieve reconciliation within the Fatah movement.

“Dahlan believes that Hamas is weaker than Fatah in Gaza and that Fatah is weaker than Hamas in the West Bank and that Fatah could win if it were to be united, whereas Hamas is likely to win if Fatah remains disunited,” the senior Palestinian source said.

“Dahlan believes that two options are available for accomplishing this: either Abu Mazen [Abbas] resigns, and this is unlikely, or that Jordan would lead the reconciliation between Dahlan and Abbas under the banner of bolstering Fatah.”

The second step would be to agree with Hamas on holding presidential and legislative elections.

The third would be to “reshape” the PA in the pre-election period.

“The parties [the UAE, Jordan and Egypt] believe that Mahmoud Abbas has expired politically and that they should endeavour to stop any surprises by Abbas during the period when Fatah will remain under his leadership until the elections are held,” the same source said.

“It is within this framework that they stress ‘on the necessity of pushing Abu Mazen to appoint a deputy’.”

Not keen to present himself as a candidate for the presidency “at this stage,” Dahlan is said by these sources to be seeking the post of parliamentary speaker, a position from which he believes he can control the presidency.

Dahlan wants former Palestinian foreign minister Nasser al-Qudwa for the post of president, although the Israelis prefer Ahmed Qurei (Abu Alaa). Dahlan claims to be able to influence both.

[Qurei is an old Arafat pal, as corrupt as they come, but no doubt Israel has something big on him and feel they could control him to some degree. EDM]

“Dahlan believes that the leading positions can be divided into three: Fatah leader, Palestinian Authority president and PLO chairman. He does not object to Jordan nominating whoever they deem appropriate for these positions,” the source said.

“After submitting his options and personal preferences, Dahlan says that the matter is subject to dialogue and discussion with the Jordanians and the Emirates and that it would be possible to deal with names proposed by Jordan.”

Dahlan wants both parliamentary and presidential elections conducted in the name of “the state of Palestine” rather than under the banner of the Palestinian Legislative Council, which is dominated by Hamas, or the PA. In Dahlan’s view, this arrangement would strengthen the PLO against the PA, and bypass the issue of the Palestinian Charter.

[This is a page from his old mentor Arafat’s book: Divide the power positions up, plot one against the other, and at the same time control them. EDM]

The fourth step in this plan is to “subjugate Hamas”.

This, in Dahlan’s view, could be achieved in several ways: by dividing Hamas into a national faction inside Gaza and an international one linked to the International Organisation of the Muslim Brotherhood; by containing Hamas inside the PA; and by developing “soft pressure” on Hamas, such as an Emirati plan to install a desalination plant in Sinai which would serve Gaza while giving the Egyptians and its allies the option of cutting the supply.

“Dahlan believes it would be possible to work with the Hamas leadership inside Gaza. He claims he was the one who persuaded the Egyptians to meet with the Hamas movement delegation within this context,” the source said.

“The Egyptians told Hamas about their three conditions for reconciliation, namely that Hamas ceases all hostile conduct inside Gaza; that Hamas works for pacifying the situation inside Sinai; and that Hamas hands over to Egypt those who are wanted by it and happen to be inside Gaza. Dahlan insists that he was the one who added the last condition in particular so as to ‘pressure Hamas’."

Other ways of containing Gaza are attempts to link Islamic Jihad, a rival movement to Hamas within the enclave, to the UAE, by building upon the assessment that Iran has abandoned them.

A delegation from Islamic Jihad arrived in Cairo on Tuesday and conducted talks with officials from Egypt’s General Intelligence Directorate.

WHY DAHLAN?

Why would three or more Arab nations and the United States, as well as Israel sign on to Dahlan as the nominative Palestinian leader?

Because he has convinced each one that he will quiet the Palestinians and increase cooperation between the Palestinians, allow a peace of some sort to permit these countries to work with Israel, who they all know would help them in any war with ISIS, and that he can be bought off.

The first is the real question. Can he really quiet the Palestinians even more than they are already? For years now the United States through USAID has shoveled millions of dollars into the Palestinian pockets. We have contacts inside there who have watched it happen and have spoken to us about it.

If even more financial progress was made, it would be easier to keep the lid on if some kind of Israel-Palestinian-Arab State-US consortium were to be established.

The second point is that most Arab lands not already involved in the ISIS conflict are sweating. They know it is only a matter of time (unless the new Trump administration can change it) until ISIS attacks them. Their militaries are at best tepid. Jordan has received a lot of US training and has many US forces on the ground there, but the rest are unprepared.

And finally, Dahlan can be bought. It is a constant fact that Palestinian leaders are on the take. And Dahlan will never have enough money to satisfy him. Buying leaders is an old tradition going back to before the British Empire crumbled. Today it is still in fashion. The problem is keeping the hacks bought once they come to power.

This is the first time we have seen any serious plans for Abbas to leave. I remind you that he and Quria have the numbers to Arafat’s accounts, so something will need to be done to that, but with today’s computer hackers, nothing is too big to consider.

Stay tuned.

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